United States of America is not willing to swap the 5 Iranians their forces captured in Iraq in January for the 15 British marines that the Iranian navy seized in the disputed Shat-al-Arab waterway, over a week ago.
Iran by refusing to release even the lone woman marine, which it had initially shown inclination to do so, has escalated a crisis that appeared to be heading for a diplomatic solution.
With UN sanctions imposed and threats of war looming large, the Iranians have made a calculation to get their 5 diplomats released.
Picking on Britain and capturing their 15 marines has averted a direct confrontation with US forces, who have only recently conducted serious war games in the Persian Gulf.
Pushing diplomatic overtures under the carpet, British Prime Minister Tony Blair chose to go on air and claim that the British Royal Navy personnel, under a UN mandate, within Iraqi waters were carrying out search operations when their patrol party was ambushed by the Iranians.
Iranians, responded by demanding an apology from the British government for the patrol party’s intrusion into Iranian territorial waters, where they were captured.
Britain came out with satellite navigation coordinates to show that the mariners were inside Iraqi waters when seized and the Iranians televised confessions of the captured Royal Navy personnel to counter British claims. An escalating tit for tat contest has caused a deadlock to resolve the crisis.
The United Nations Security Council has not ‘deplored’ Iran’s action though it did express ‘grave concern’ on the matter. Members of the US Senate, a country that is Britain’s closest ally, chose to remain silent over the hostage crisis before the lawmakers left Washington and headed out for a two-week spring holiday break.
With Russia restraining United Nations to play a more proactive role in the crisis, the British government turned to the European Union and obtained their strong backing for action against Iran. What that action is going to be, has not been spelt out?
The world’s financial markets are on the edge about developments in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have spiked to touch $ 69 a barrel, the highest in seven months, on Friday.
The world has failed to move Iran over its controversial nuclear program. A defiant Iran is no respecter of international law and its leadership is determined to go ahead with the program, UN sanctions not withstanding.
Not just the USA, UK, EU nations or Israel, even the Arabian Kingdoms are awry of Iranian designs of becoming a nuclear power in the Middle East.
With the ‘failed’ Iraq war fast sinking into sectarian violence between the Arabs backed Sunni’s and the Iran backed Shia’s, the US and UK allied forces have failed to provide security in the region. In all this, the US senate has even legislated to abandon Iraq and bring the boys back home.
Should the American’s choose to do so, not only does the superpower status get a drubbing but more importantly it stands to loose vital oil interests in the region. Iran is certainly an obstacle to surmount if stability in the Gulf is to be retained but war is not the only way that the nation could be engaged.
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USA, UK, EU or Israel are surely awry of Iranian designs of becoming a nuclear power in the Middle East.
But it still looks like the leader (US) won’t risk another war with another country- a country three times as big as Iraq and a country that is nuclear capable and more importantly when it stands to loose its vital oil interests in the region. Well I don’t think so.
But still if US with its new allies this time around bombs Iran the consequences would be disastrous in the Middle East that would see an unprecedented popular wave of anti-Americanism. It is likely that insurrections or even revolutions will break out. And then will America be able to contain them?
I think it will be better for them to remain inclined to caution. And if still they want to see another Gulf War, well then good luck with that!!